Team Kronos (KS) trading-Bots performance per June 2022

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June was a very bad month. On June 13, Celsius froze all withdrawals and as of today, people still cannot access their assets. This is one of the main reasons why many crypto  currencies made big losses.
BTC: -38.83%, ETH: -45.47%.

A small majority of our bots could limit the damage and Phoroneus even made a profit. But some aggressive bots that do very well in Bull markets did way worse than the benchmark.

PDF:  Kronos-June-2022.

Team Kronos.

After the crash on June 13, some people raised the question:

‘Why don’t the bots sell their positions when the market is going down so fast?’.

The answer is that historically it is not profiting. To illustrate this, I show you a few examples:

Let’s take the Bitcoin bot Gaia: A ‘cautious’ bot that has the following results (2022 is till June 15, 2:00am).

Gaia

2018: Profit: 51%, Max draw down: -20%
2019: Profit: 33%, Max draw down: -10%
2020: Profit: 138%, Max draw down: -7%
2021: Profit: 20%, Max draw down: -29%
2022: Profit: 12%, Max draw down: -8%

Note that the Bot made profit every year, even in 2018 when BTC lost 73%. Also note that there are times that Gaia made quite some temporary losses along the way, which is reflected in the Max draw down.

Now I show the results with a modified Gaia, Gaia2. If within 24 hours BTC drops more than 5%, Gaia2 steps out immediately, and waits until the next morning to resume the ‘normal’ operation.
That is, Gaia2 is reset and waits for a good moment to step in again. You might thing this is a wise thing to do. But retesting Gaia2 over all the historical data since 2018 gives us this:

Gaia2

2018: Profit: -30%, Max draw down: -30%
2019: Profit: 13%, Max draw down: -8%
2020: Profit: 6%, Max draw down: -10%
2021: Profit: -17%, Max draw down: -28%
2022: Profit: -15%, Max draw down: -15%

The results are worse. In 2018 Gaia2 stepped out 11 times, because there were drops of 5% in 1 day. As Gaia2 steps out ‘early’ and freezes for a while, she misses some up-trends, resulting in poor results. A similar story holds for the other years.
So what if we make a Gaia3 and step out at a 10% drop. Just to avoid some nasty dips?

Gaia3

2018: Profit: -3%, Max draw down: -26%
2019: Profit: 33%, Max draw down: -10%
2020: Profit: 86%, Max draw down: -13%
2021: Profit: 6%, Max draw down: -29%
2022: Profit: 12%, Max draw down: -8%

Again not better than Gaia. In 2018 there were still 10 moments that Gaia3 stepped out early and froze. In 2021 (pretty good year) there were 3 large drops of more than 10% in one day (2 in May, 1 in September).

So let’s go for Gaia4. We immediately step out in case of a 25% drop, just to avoid the real urgent crisis.

Gaia4

2018: Profit: 51%, Max draw down: -20%
2019: Profit: 33%, Max draw down: -10%
2020: Profit: 138%, Max draw down: -7%
2021: Profit: -5%, Max draw down: -43%
2022: Profit: 12%, Max draw down: -8%

Only in May 2021, there was a drop of 25% in 1 day, but the market recovered soon. As Gaia4 stepped out at 25% loss and froze for a while, it missed the upward trend. Gaia made 20% profit, Gaia4 made 5% loss.

Conclusion:

Looking back, it would have been smart to step out on June 10 or so. But in real life, we must look forward and predict. Among other things, our Bots use patterns in historical data to determine what to do for the future. In the long run this seems to pay off very well. On the short term, not always. And for both the short and long term, there are no guarantees.

Find ID “KS” in Bots Creators Names and Selection & Spreading.

 

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