BTC went up a little, ETH went up a lot (18.06%). However, most of the time the market was very static, non-volatile. Compared to a year ago, the market is very static.
In such a market it is hard to make a series of moves to beat the benchmark. That’s why most bots do not make many moves or do not trade at all. If they make a move, there’s a chance they do not beat the benchmark (although most bots do make some profit).
Balbinus, Epaphus and Seleucus were able to beat the benchmark.
PDF: Kronos, October 2022.
Team Kronos.
Find ID “KS” in Bots Creators Names and Selection & Spreading.
Team Kronos. From the June 2022 report about stop loss:
The market is very bad, and my Bots are suffering from it.
This raises the question: ‘Why don’t the bots sell their positions when the market is going down so fast?’
The answer is that historically it is not profiting. To illustrate this, I show you a few examples:
Let’s take the Bitcoin bot Gaia: A ‘cautious’ bot that has the following results (2022 is till June 15, 2:00am).
Gaia
2018: Profit: 51%, Max draw down: -20%
2019: Profit: 33%, Max draw down: -10%
2020: Profit: 138%, Max draw down: -7%
2021: Profit: 20%, Max draw down: -29%
2022: Profit: 12%, Max draw down: -8%
Note that the Bot made profit every year, even in 2018 when BTC lost 73%. Also note that there are times that Gaia made quite some temporary losses along the way, which is reflected in the Max draw down.
Now I show the results with a modified Gaia, Gaia2. If within 24 hours BTC drops more than 5%, Gaia2 steps out immediately, and waits until the next morning to resume the ‘normal’ operation.
That is, Gaia2 is reset and waits for a good moment to step in again. You might thing this is a wise thing to do. But retesting Gaia2 over all the historical data since 2018 gives us this:
Gaia2
2018: Profit: -30%, Max draw down: -30%
2019: Profit: 13%, Max draw down: -8%
2020: Profit: 6%, Max draw down: -10%
2021: Profit: -17%, Max draw down: -28%
2022: Profit: -15%, Max draw down: -15%
The results are worse. In 2018 Gaia2 stepped out 11 times, because there were drops of 5% in 1 day. As Gaia2 steps out ‘early’ and freezes for a while, she misses some up-trends, resulting in poor results. A similar story holds for the other years.
So what if we make a Gaia3 and step out at a 10% drop. Just to avoid some nasty dips?
Gaia3
2018: Profit: -3%, Max draw down: -26%
2019: Profit: 33%, Max draw down: -10%
2020: Profit: 86%, Max draw down: -13%
2021: Profit: 6%, Max draw down: -29%
2022: Profit: 12%, Max draw down: -8%
Again not better than Gaia. In 2018 there were still 10 moments that Gaia3 stepped out early and froze. In 2021 (pretty good year) there were 3 large drops of more than 10% in one day (2 in May, 1 in September).
So let’t go for Gaia4.
We immediately step out in case of a 25% drop, just to avoid the real urgent crisis.
2018: Profit: 51%, Max draw down: -20%
2019: Profit: 33%, Max draw down: -10%
2020: Profit: 138%, Max draw down: -7%
2021: Profit: -5%, Max draw down: -43%
2022: Profit: 12%, Max draw down: -8%
Only in May 2021, there was a drop of 25% in 1 day, but the market recovered soon. Because Gaia4 stepped out at 25% loss and froze for a while, it missed the upward trend. Gaia made 20% profit, Gaia4 5% loss.
Conclusion: Looking back, it would have been smart to step out 2 or 3 days ago. But in real life we must look forward and predict.
My Bots use patterns in historical data (which involves Math like trend analysis, polynomial regression and Fourier transforms) to determine what to do for the future. But there are no guarantees.
If you want to know all the details of our Bots, please go to https://teamkronos.io/explore.