Performance of single coin Ethereum and Bitcoin trading-bots

Several botcreators have build trading-bots that trade with a single coin. I have been following the bots that focus on trading ETH (Ethereum coin) and BTC (Bitcoin).

On the bots platform two trading bots trade with Ethereum.

Botcreator Rave before the Machine introduces Dr. Spock. According to the botcreator the bot is looking to outperform the market by avoiding large losses. Analysis is key for Dr. Spock to step out of a trade perfectly in time, just before the tip of crash.

Botcreator Team Agga Technologies created Refreshing Grey Mia, a balanced long-term risk strategy. According to the botcreator the bot is a trend following strategy focused merely on the larger upsides of the crypto market. Based on machine learning this bot’s strategy has been highly optimized to generate a superior risk-return rate.

Sound promosing. Let’s evaluate the bot performances over the last 9 weeks up to today, Nov. 26th 2020.

9 Week performance of single coin Ethereum bots
9 Week performance of single coin Ethereum bots

The grey line in the chart represents the performance of the Ethereum coin over the last 9 weeks. The orange line shows the performance of Dr. Spock, the Ethereum bot of botcreator Rave before the Machine. The blue line follows the performance of Refreshing Grey Mia made by botcreator Team Agga Technologies.

The graph shows that Ethereum has climbed to a profit of more than 70%, before falling back to a 39,5% gain over the 9-week period, after today’s correction. A result that both trading-bots haven’t been able to even approximately reach. Dr. Spock has been able to score a maximum gain of 1,67% and stands at -11,15% today. Refreshing Grey Mia has had a negative result during the complete 9-week period and stands at -9,76% today.

Disappointing results after reading the promising bot descriptions. Let’s see if the Bitcoin bots have been able to build a better track record.

On the bots platform four trading bots trade with Bitcoin.

Botcreator Boosting Alpha has developed Himalaya to generate a stable and moderate performance without the high risk normally associated with crypto investments.

Botcreator Rave before the Machine has two Bitcoin bots, Dr. Block and Dr. Block 2. Dr. Block is looking for a bit more security, a risk spreader which uses small steps when getting into assets. Dr. Block 2 is it’s sibling, has the same characteristics but different variables. It looks over a longer piece of the timeline than it’s brother does.

Finally Team Agga Technologies have created Sweet Orange Mia as a balanced long-term strategy, again a trend following strategy focused merely on the larger upsides of the crypto market. Based on machine learning this bot’s strategy has been highly optimized to generate a superior risk-return rate.

Let’s see how the Bitcoin bots have been performing over the last 8 weeks.

8 Week performance of the single coin Bitcoin trading bots

The lightblue line represents the development of the Bitcoin price over the last 8 weeks. Bitcoin has reached an incredible 83% growth before falling to a 56,3% gain today, Nov. 26th 2020. The best performing Bitcoin trading-bot in the past 8 weeks is Dr. Block 2 represented by the yellow line in the graph, with a gain of 20,6%. Sweet Orange Mia (darkblue line) has gained as much as 29% before losing 12% in a single day today, closing on a 15,5% profit. Dr. Block (grey line) has shown steady growth to finish the 8-week period with a gain of 14%. Himalaya (orange line) reached a nearly 30% profit, but hasn’t been able to hold on to it’s gains falling more than 16% today to a profit of 11,6%.

The results presented above are measured over a relatively short period of 8 and 9 weeks, and it is probably to early to attach conclusions to them. The development of the profits could tell something about the aggressiveness of the various bots, and can help in deciding to choose the best bot according to your risk appetite.

I will continue to follow the performance of the bots over the coming period.

Agga Technologies trading-Bots performance per November 2020

Agga Technologisch trading-Bots performance

This is the first Agga Technologisch trading-Bots performance table we publish. On 11 November 2020, the RevenYOU Bots team wrote:

"Dear Community,
Research has shown that the signals from Agga Technologies bots did not arrive properly on the BOTS-platform. This caused these bots (names Mia's) to not function properly. Together with the Agga team we have fixed this. There has been a partial miscommunication between the RevenYOU development Bots team and the Agga team, which caused the errors.
We are continuously changing and optimizing our platform and Agga Technologies do the same for their trading-algorithms. Because of this continuous change and the miscommunication, this problem could occur. RevenYOU apologize for this. The new API will provide optimal and better communication.
The RevenYOU Bots team hope that everyone will give them the confidence, and let the bots perform."

In short this means that the Mia bots did not all perform as expected prior to 11 November. The table above should be read while taking this in to account.  From this date onward  the Return On Investment should be secured, as expected.

3 Months of Bots performance compared to a Top 20 coins HODL

After a booming summer with enormous gains for crypto currencies in the months of July and August 2020, I started tracking the performance of my collection of 27 bots and comparing it to a selection of 20 crypto currency coins. Main reason was to decide if there was any sense in buying bots.

Some coins had profits of 60 to 70 percent in the two month summer period while my bots portfolio only made a fraction of that. Why not simply buy the coins and hold them in a crypto wallet?

The results of the last three months (end of August to end of November) are presented in this chart.

Bots vs Top20Coins HODL
Yield of a selection of 27 bots (blue line) vs Hodl of top 20 coins (orange line)

The result of my bots portfolio is shown by the darkblue line in the chart (the yellow line is a 15 day moving average). The result of the Top 20 Coins Hodl is shown by the orange line (with a lightblue line as 15 day moving average).

The chart shows that the months of September and October were less successful crypto currency months with an average loss up to almost 25% for the Top 20 Coins. The collection of bots, able to abort positions, limited its loss to 5%. November is as booming as the July-August period. The Top 20 Coins turned their average loss into a 12,65% average profit today (Nov. 23rd), and closed in on the bots result of 14,76%.

A preliminary conclusion can be made. Bots shield your portfolio and protect it from falling crypto currency quotes. The bots algorithms can close positions when signals point to decline. But bots are not able to perform as well as coins in rising markets.

Will bots be able to outperform a coins hodl over a longer period (up to a year)? That remains to be seen. The bots will have to preserve their gains by closing positions in case of a correction on the crypto currency market and reopen positions when the market turns up. Instead of the high peeks and deep valleys shown by the crypto currencies, the bots will have to develop a cascading pattern with smaller steps up, but without deep lows (like stairs or better an escalator).

I will continue sharing my comparison for the months to come.

Boosting Alpha trading-Bots performance per October 2020

Boosting Alpha trading-Bots performance per October 2020

The first part of October was very quiet without a lot of volatility on the crypto markets. The second part of October saw some important trend changes where Bitcoin-based coins saw strong growth (driven by the Paypal news) while most of the other coins saw strong declines (top20 coins on average close to stable). Also for the first time since the start of the Covid-19 crisis the correlation between the stock markets and the crypto markets has turned opposite.

“Our trading bots returned on average a modest 1% in October. The average 30-day performance of our bots is still 4,5%.”

BOTS by RevenYOU: Trading and Gamification

“Trading is rapidly gaining in popularity among young people. Since the interest rate on savings has been close to 0%, young people have started to look for other ways to build up capital. So it should come as no surprise that the development of trading apps such as BOTS appeals to this age group. And for us as a platform, that entails a responsibility.”

See the full article source: https://hollandfintech.com/2020/10/bots-by-revenyou-guest-blog-trading-and-gamification/

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