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ETH, Etherium
I whish you all a happy 2023.
Let’s hope that 2023 is the year of the crypto recovery.
BTC went down a little, ETH a little more.
Epaphus made a nice 5.58% profit by taking a position in BNB on December 17, It is still holding this position.
The frequent trade Bots were not able to make profits this month, except for Ballista. Below the results of December.
PDF: Kronos December 2022.
Team Kronos.
Find ID “KS” in Bots Creators Names and Selection & Spreading.
BTC is moving sort of sideways for a couple of months now. However, we’ve seen a gain of about 5.5% in October.
ETH gained over 18% last months which shows in our bots that trade in ETH. Also LNV.LicenceToThrill managed to make a good profit of 17.8% last month.
Unfortunately, LNV.BuyAnotherDay had a tough month (-11.9%) after a stunning September (+26%).
Team To The Moon (TT).
Find ID “TT” in Bots Creators Names and Selection & Spreading.
BTC went up a little, ETH went up a lot (18.06%). However, most of the time the market was very static, non-volatile. Compared to a year ago, the market is very static.
In such a market it is hard to make a series of moves to beat the benchmark. That’s why most bots do not make many moves or do not trade at all. If they make a move, there’s a chance they do not beat the benchmark (although most bots do make some profit).
Balbinus, Epaphus and Seleucus were able to beat the benchmark.
PDF: Kronos, October 2022.
Team Kronos.
Find ID “KS” in Bots Creators Names and Selection & Spreading.
August started quite well with a Bitcoin price that went from 23.000 USD to about 25.000. However, in a few days, the Bitcoin price fell back to about 19.500 USD.
Overall Bitcoin had quite a tough month (-13.9%) after the gains that were made in July. Our BTC based bots suffered the most by the drop of the Bitcoin price. Because some BTC based bots trade in ETH, which had a quite better month than BTC (-7.4%).
Mild.BBKing.b0t managed to make a profit of 7.6% in last month, which was quite a good job. Also, Most LNV bots stayed out of the market or managed to make a small profit.
Also Hot.BBKing.b0t, did a good job, because it generated that much BTC by trading in ETH, such that the loss was limited to -2.7% (in EUR).
Team To The Moon (TT).
Find ID “TT” in Bots Creators Names and Selection & Spreading.
June was a very bad month. On June 13, Celsius froze all withdrawals and as of today, people still cannot access their assets. This is one of the main reasons why many crypto currencies made big losses.
BTC: -38.83%, ETH: -45.47%.
A small majority of our bots could limit the damage and Phoroneus even made a profit. But some aggressive bots that do very well in Bull markets did way worse than the benchmark.
PDF: Kronos-June-2022.
Team Kronos.
After the crash on June 13, some people raised the question:
‘Why don’t the bots sell their positions when the market is going down so fast?’.
The answer is that historically it is not profiting. To illustrate this, I show you a few examples:
Let’s take the Bitcoin bot Gaia: A ‘cautious’ bot that has the following results (2022 is till June 15, 2:00am).
2018: Profit: 51%, Max draw down: -20%
2019: Profit: 33%, Max draw down: -10%
2020: Profit: 138%, Max draw down: -7%
2021: Profit: 20%, Max draw down: -29%
2022: Profit: 12%, Max draw down: -8%
Note that the Bot made profit every year, even in 2018 when BTC lost 73%. Also note that there are times that Gaia made quite some temporary losses along the way, which is reflected in the Max draw down.
Now I show the results with a modified Gaia, Gaia2. If within 24 hours BTC drops more than 5%, Gaia2 steps out immediately, and waits until the next morning to resume the ‘normal’ operation.
That is, Gaia2 is reset and waits for a good moment to step in again. You might thing this is a wise thing to do. But retesting Gaia2 over all the historical data since 2018 gives us this:
2018: Profit: -30%, Max draw down: -30%
2019: Profit: 13%, Max draw down: -8%
2020: Profit: 6%, Max draw down: -10%
2021: Profit: -17%, Max draw down: -28%
2022: Profit: -15%, Max draw down: -15%
The results are worse. In 2018 Gaia2 stepped out 11 times, because there were drops of 5% in 1 day. As Gaia2 steps out ‘early’ and freezes for a while, she misses some up-trends, resulting in poor results. A similar story holds for the other years.
So what if we make a Gaia3 and step out at a 10% drop. Just to avoid some nasty dips?
2018: Profit: -3%, Max draw down: -26%
2019: Profit: 33%, Max draw down: -10%
2020: Profit: 86%, Max draw down: -13%
2021: Profit: 6%, Max draw down: -29%
2022: Profit: 12%, Max draw down: -8%
Again not better than Gaia. In 2018 there were still 10 moments that Gaia3 stepped out early and froze. In 2021 (pretty good year) there were 3 large drops of more than 10% in one day (2 in May, 1 in September).
So let’s go for Gaia4. We immediately step out in case of a 25% drop, just to avoid the real urgent crisis.
2018: Profit: 51%, Max draw down: -20%
2019: Profit: 33%, Max draw down: -10%
2020: Profit: 138%, Max draw down: -7%
2021: Profit: -5%, Max draw down: -43%
2022: Profit: 12%, Max draw down: -8%
Only in May 2021, there was a drop of 25% in 1 day, but the market recovered soon. As Gaia4 stepped out at 25% loss and froze for a while, it missed the upward trend. Gaia made 20% profit, Gaia4 made 5% loss.
Looking back, it would have been smart to step out on June 10 or so. But in real life, we must look forward and predict. Among other things, our Bots use patterns in historical data to determine what to do for the future. In the long run this seems to pay off very well. On the short term, not always. And for both the short and long term, there are no guarantees.
Find ID “KS” in Bots Creators Names and Selection & Spreading.
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