Himalaya – Bots Institute

February 27, 2021February 27, 2021

Different ways to invest in Bitcoin compared

In the dark days before Christmas, while contemplating my Bitcoin strategy for 2021, I asked myself the question which options are available. I came up with three different strategies; (1) Buying Bitcoin trackers, (2) Buying trading bots that have Bitcoin as basecoin and (3) Buying USDT based single coin trading bots that trade Bitcoin. All three strategies are contrasted against holding bitcoin on Binance (the yellow line in all charts).

First category: Bitcoin trackers

Bitcoin trackers invest your money in Bitcoin and do not touch it until you decide to sell. They promise to follow the price of Bitcoin 1:1. I purchased 3 trackers:

The Big Friendly.bot:
According to the botcreator, The Big Friendly.bot is the easiest way there is to buy Bitcoin. As soon as you start the bot, it invests in the mother of all crypto currencies: Bitcoin. Once this is done, it does not touch the investment at all.
Bitcoin XBTE Bitcoin Tracker EUR XBT Provider (SE0007525332)
The certificates provide exposure to the performance of the digital currency bitcoin by synthetically tracking performance of the price of bitcoin (BTC/USD) less a fee. (More info: https://coinshares.com/etps/xbt-provider/bitcoin-tracker-euro)
VanEck Vectors Bitcoin ETN (DE000A28M8D0):
This Exchange Traded Note (ETN) gives direct access to the largest and most liquid of cryptocurrencies: bitcoin, 100% backed by bitcoins, stored in cold storage with a regulated custodian with crypto insurance (limited amount coverage) Tradable as an ETF with Deutsche Boerse Xetra. (More info: https://www.vanecketfs.nl/producten/VanEck-Vectors-Bitcoin-ETN/32/overzicht)

The results over the last 2 months are not very surprising.

As expected all three trackers follow the price of Bitcoin very closely. Only disadvantage of the two listed trackers is that you are not able to trade outside the stock market opening hours. This can be a big risk as you can’t protect yourself against price drops after closing of the stock market or during weekends. Cryptocurrency markets are always “on”, with 365/24/7 trading activity. In the event of a crash of the cryptocurrency market on Friday evening, you can only intervene on Monday morning.

The Big Friendly.bot can always be sold as the Bots platform strives to be open and functional 24/7.

Second category: Bitcoin based trading bots

These trading bots have Bitcoin as their base coin and should multiply their value in Bitcoin through trading Bitcoin-pairs. I selected three bots for my comparison.

CBS by Altrady:
A unique algorithm that works by automatically analyzing the market history for each available market, checks current prices against previous support levels and will ensure the bot buys low and sells high.
Thunderbird by Dagobert Buck:
This trading bot focuses on BTC pairs (BNB, ETH, LTC, AION, ALGO, ANKR, ARPA and ATOM) and tries to predict the future of a pair by estimating the USDT components. So BNBBTC is predicted by looking at BNBUSDT and BTCUSDT.
DeFi Strategy by Dagobert Buck:
This trading bot focuses on the top 10 currencies in the world of Decentralized Finance (DeFi). The currencies are LINK, LEND, MKR, SNX, COMP, YFI, ZRX, REN, KNC and BAND. It uses the same strategy as Thunderbird, trying to predict the future of a pair by estimating the USDT components.

Two of the bots have been following the pricetrend of their basecoin Bitcoin, hence have not been trading much, at least not successfully. The third bot has lost value to Bitcoin through its trades. None of the bots have been able to make money through successful trades.

This goes for most of the bots on the Bots platform that do not have a stable coin (USDT) as their basecoin, but a coin like Bitcoin, Ethereum or BNB. When looking at their performance in crypto currency, most show a negative result. The bots are not able to successfully trade, and multiply the amount of basecoin you have invested in. The stellar results in euro as shown in the app are caused by even more stellar results of their basecoin.

Although most (unaware) users are happy with the results of these bots, and Revenyou is proudly using these results in there marketing stratgies, investing in a tracking bot that follows the pricetrend without intervening or investing directly in the coin (not through a bot), would have resulted in a higher gain.

Third category: USDT based single coin trading bots that trade Bitcoin

These trading bots have stable coin USDT as their basecoin and try to multiply their value by trading Bitcoin. I selected two bots for my comparison.

Himalaya by Boosting Alpha Netehrlands:
A moderate and stable bot that only trades in Bitcoin. Through its cautious approach it tries to participate in winning prices and to stop in time at falling prices.
Sweet Orange Mia by Team Agga Technologies:
This trend trading bot trades in Bitcoin and was created to focus only on the greater benefits of the crypto market. The bot will stop trading if the market is stagnant.

These bots will not gain as much as Bitcoin, but are designed to hold on to their profits in declining markets. Two months is too short a period for reviewing or judging these bots, especially in the growing market we have experienced for the past two months. Although the chart shows that the bots were able to hold on to gains when Bitcoin prices fell, and even outgain Bitcoin in certain instances, the overall gains in two months are half of the Bitcoin gains.

Unlike trackers and BTC based bots, these trading bots will exit declining markets themselves and hide in their stable coin to protect gains. Less risk, more ease of mind for the owner.

A fourth strategy which I have started in the beginning of February is trading Bitcoin myself on Binance. Together with a friend I am developing a strategy to multiply the amount of Bitcoin through trading in BTC pairs (more or less simular to category two described above). Our goal is to earn more bitcoins and to profit from rising Bitcoin prices. If you don’t have the time, knowledge or interest in developing your own trading strategy another option is copy trading, where you can automate your Bitcoin trades using signal providers.

Let me know through the comments if you know of any other strategy, if you have other experiences with the strategies described above, or if you have any other comments or additions.

January 7, 2021January 7, 2021

Performance of single coin Ethereum and Bitcoin trading-bots – final update

My last update on the single coin crypto trading bots, trading Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin has passed the 40.000 USD mark to a new all time high. Ethereum tried to tap the 1300 USD boundary. How are the bots that trade in these coins performing?

In percentage (27 Dec.):

1. Bitcoin (green line): +274,51% (+154,84%)
2. Himalaya by botcreator Boosting Alpha (blue line): +88,26% (+50,60%)
3. Sweet Orange Mia by botcreator Agga Technologies (orange line): +73,69% (+31,63%)
4. Dr Block 2 by botcreator Rave before the machine (yellow line): +38,77% (+31,62%)
5. Dr Block by botcreator Rave before the machine (grey line): +26,47% (+25,71%)

In percentages (27 Dec.):

1. Ethereum (blue line): +258,69% (+96,88%)
2. Refreshing Grey Mia by botcreator Agga Technologies (grey line): +122,40% (+22,70%)
3. Dr. Spock by botcreator Rave before the machine (orange line): -8,93% (-12,81%)

I have decided to sell Dr. Spock and reinvest the money in another bot. Therefore this will be the last performance comparison for the Ethereum trading bots.

For the Bitcoin bots I have started tracking the performance of Bitcoin and a number of Bitcoin related instruments , being:

Bitcoin Tracker EUR XBT Provider ETF
VanEck Vectors Bitcoin ETN
The Big Friendly bot (USDT based “bot” investing all its funds directly in Bitcoin)
Thunderbird bot (BTC based bot focusing on trading 8 BTC pairs)
DeFi Strategy bot (BTC based bot trading in the top 10 coins in the world of Decentralized Finance)
CBS bot (BTC based bot trading all available markets)
Himalaya bot (USDT based bot trading only in BTC)
Sweet Orange Mia bot (USDT based bot trading only in BTC)

The new comparison will try to answer the question which instrument is the most profitable, taking risk into account. Bitcoin trackers (1-3), BTC based bots (4-6) or USDT based bots trading BTC (7-8). The comparison will replace the current performance comparison. Keep posted for the first blog.

December 27, 2020July 5, 2021

Performance of single coin Ethereum and Bitcoin trading-bots update 2

A new bi-weekly update on the performance of the Bitcoin and Ethereum crypto trading bots on the Revenyou Bots platform. This blog adds two weeks of data to the last update found here.

Performance of single coin Ethereum and Bitcoin trading-bots update

Bitcoin has been on an exeptional bullrun rallying more than 45% in value in the past two weeks to more than $28.000. If we compare that run to the performance of the Bitcoin crypto trading bots we see the following results.

In percentage (2 weeks ago):

1. Bitcoin (green line): +154,84% (+72,33%)
2. Himalaya by botcreator Boosting Alpha (orange line): +50,60% (+28,82%)
3. Sweet Orange Mia by botcreator Agga Technologies (blue line): +31,63% (+14,12%)
4. Dr Block 2 by botcreator Rave before the machine (yellow line): +31,62% (+27,88%)
5. Dr Block by botcreator Rave before the machine (grey line): +25,71% (+19.03%)

Although all bots have been able to add value, the differences are remarkable. Just like in my last blog where I compared the performance of my portfolio of crypto trading bots to a holding portfolio of crypto currency coins, I want to use the Sharpe ratio to help understand the return of the investments compared to their risk. To briefly summarize the usefulness of the ratio:

- The Sharpe ratio adjusts a portfolio’s past performance for the excess risk that was taken by the investor.
- A high Sharpe ratio is good when compared to similar portfolios or funds with lower returns.

Comparing the Sharpe ratio’s of Bitcoin and the BTC trading Bots provides a fairer picture of the performance. The results are represented in the following chart.

A higher Sharpe metric is always better than a lower one because a higher ratio indicates that the portfolio is making better investment decisions and not being swayed by the risk associated with it. Sharpe ratio grading thresholds are commonly interpreted in the following way:

- <1: Not Good
- 1 – 1.99: Ok
- 2 – 2.99: Really Good
- >3: Exceptional

With Sharpe ratio scores ranging from 2,96 to 4,46 the Bitcoin trading bots have shown very good to exceptional results. Bitcoin however, with a Sharpe ratio of 10, is in a league of its own.

Finally the chart for Ethereum and the ETH trading bots.

Ethereum is showing very strong growth in value over the past two weeks. The ETH trading bots show a varied picture. In percentages (2 weeks ago):

1. Ethereum (grey line): +96,88% (+58,45%)
2. Refreshing Grey Mia by botcreator Agga Technologies (blue line): +22,70% (-1,22%)
3. Dr. Spock by botcreator Rave before the machine (orange line): -12,81% (-12,05%)

Refreshing Grey Mia has performed very well and turned its loss into a good profit. Dr. Spock has fallen further and is waiting for an update by the botcreator.

As noted in previous blogs, the crypto trading bots are looking for an outperformance by holding on to accumulated profits in a declining market. So far they have had no chance to do so. I will continue to compare the results of the crypto trading bots to the performance of their coins to see if outperformance is possible in the longer run.

December 10, 2020December 10, 2020

Performance of single coin Ethereum and Bitcoin trading-bots update

Two weeks ago I shared the performance of the single coin bots trading Bitcoin and Ethereum on the Bots platform, in a blog post (see link underneath). Today I will share an update with two weeks of additional data.

Performance of single coin Ethereum and Bitcoin trading-bots

Two weeks ago we saw a sharp fall in prices of both Bitcoin as well as Ethereum. As shown in the previous blog some bots handled that correction better than others. In the last two weeks we have seen recovery of prices to previous highs and after that a market that moved sideways to slightly downward in the past days. How did the single coin bots handle this volatility? Let’s first have a look at the Ethereum bots chart.

11-week performance of the single coin Ethereum bots

The grey line represents the Ethereum price. The Ethereum bots are Dr. Spock by botcreator Rave before the Machine (orange line) and Refreshing Grey Mia by Agga Technologies (blue line). The results after eleven weeks are (results two weeks ago):

Ethereum: +58,45% (+39,5%)
Refreshing Grey Mia: -1,22% (-9,76%)
Dr. Spock: -12,05% (-11,15%)

Compared to two weeks ago Ethereum coin has shown an increasing outperfromance to the bots gaining almost 19%. Refreshing Grey Mia gained 8,5% in the same period, while Dr. Spock fell almost an additional 1%.

Next up the Bitcoin bots. Let’s have a look at the chart.

9-week performance of the single coin BTC bots

Bitcoin (lightblue line) is traded by four single coin bots. Himalaya (orange line) by Boosting Alpha, Dr. Block (grey line) and it’s sibling Dr. Block 2 (yellow line) by Rave before the Machine and Sweet Orange Mia (dark blue line) by Agga Technologies. The results over the last 9 weeks are (compared to results over 7 weeks):

Bitcoin: +72,33% (+56,3%)
Himalaya: +28,82% (+11,6%)
Dr. Block 2: +27,88% (+20,6%)
Dr. Block: +19,03% (14%)
Sweet Orange Mia: +14,12% (+15,5%)

The nice recovery of Bitcoin to previous all time high levels has been followed by Himalaya, improving from worst performing to best performing Bitcoin bot. Dr. Block 2 shows the same steady growth as before as does Dr. Block. The only bot that didn’t gain compared to two weeks ago is Sweet Orange Mia.

Next update in two weeks time. You can subscribe using the Orange sign up box next to this blog to receive Blog-updates in your mailbox.

November 26, 2020November 29, 2020

Performance of single coin Ethereum and Bitcoin trading-bots

Several botcreators have build trading-bots that trade with a single coin. I have been following the bots that focus on trading ETH (Ethereum coin) and BTC (Bitcoin).

On the bots platform two trading bots trade with Ethereum.

Botcreator Rave before the Machine introduces Dr. Spock. According to the botcreator the bot is looking to outperform the market by avoiding large losses. Analysis is key for Dr. Spock to step out of a trade perfectly in time, just before the tip of crash.

Botcreator Team Agga Technologies created Refreshing Grey Mia, a balanced long-term risk strategy. According to the botcreator the bot is a trend following strategy focused merely on the larger upsides of the crypto market. Based on machine learning this bot’s strategy has been highly optimized to generate a superior risk-return rate.

Sound promosing. Let’s evaluate the bot performances over the last 9 weeks up to today, Nov. 26th 2020.

9 Week performance of single coin Ethereum bots

The grey line in the chart represents the performance of the Ethereum coin over the last 9 weeks. The orange line shows the performance of Dr. Spock, the Ethereum bot of botcreator Rave before the Machine. The blue line follows the performance of Refreshing Grey Mia made by botcreator Team Agga Technologies.

The graph shows that Ethereum has climbed to a profit of more than 70%, before falling back to a 39,5% gain over the 9-week period, after today’s correction. A result that both trading-bots haven’t been able to even approximately reach. Dr. Spock has been able to score a maximum gain of 1,67% and stands at -11,15% today. Refreshing Grey Mia has had a negative result during the complete 9-week period and stands at -9,76% today.

Disappointing results after reading the promising bot descriptions. Let’s see if the Bitcoin bots have been able to build a better track record.

On the bots platform four trading bots trade with Bitcoin.

Botcreator Boosting Alpha has developed Himalaya to generate a stable and moderate performance without the high risk normally associated with crypto investments.

Botcreator Rave before the Machine has two Bitcoin bots, Dr. Block and Dr. Block 2. Dr. Block is looking for a bit more security, a risk spreader which uses small steps when getting into assets. Dr. Block 2 is it’s sibling, has the same characteristics but different variables. It looks over a longer piece of the timeline than it’s brother does.

Finally Team Agga Technologies have created Sweet Orange Mia as a balanced long-term strategy, again a trend following strategy focused merely on the larger upsides of the crypto market. Based on machine learning this bot’s strategy has been highly optimized to generate a superior risk-return rate.

Let’s see how the Bitcoin bots have been performing over the last 8 weeks.

8 Week performance of the single coin Bitcoin trading bots

The lightblue line represents the development of the Bitcoin price over the last 8 weeks. Bitcoin has reached an incredible 83% growth before falling to a 56,3% gain today, Nov. 26th 2020. The best performing Bitcoin trading-bot in the past 8 weeks is Dr. Block 2 represented by the yellow line in the graph, with a gain of 20,6%. Sweet Orange Mia (darkblue line) has gained as much as 29% before losing 12% in a single day today, closing on a 15,5% profit. Dr. Block (grey line) has shown steady growth to finish the 8-week period with a gain of 14%. Himalaya (orange line) reached a nearly 30% profit, but hasn’t been able to hold on to it’s gains falling more than 16% today to a profit of 11,6%.

The results presented above are measured over a relatively short period of 8 and 9 weeks, and it is probably to early to attach conclusions to them. The development of the profits could tell something about the aggressiveness of the various bots, and can help in deciding to choose the best bot according to your risk appetite.

I will continue to follow the performance of the bots over the coming period.