A month ago I tried to answer the question:”Should I invest in crypto trading bots or should I buy crypto coins myself?”
To answer the question I have been comparing three portfolios. Two portfolios on the Binance cryptocurrency platform in which I bought and held on to a selection of crypto coins (Top 10 cryptocurrency coins and cryptocurrency coins 11-20) and one portfolio with my selection of 30+ crypto trading bots on the Revenyou Bots platform.
After six months of comparing the performances of three portfolios, here are the final results.
The results of the three portfolio’s after six months as per mid February 2021 (5 months results as per mid January 2021):
- Top10 coins portfolio Binance (orange line): +291,12% (+88,6%)
- Top11-20 coins portfolio Binance (grey line): +172,67% (+40,1%)
- Crypto trading bots portfolio Revenyou Bots (blue line): +141,49% (+55,8%)
Incredible gains in the last month, where both Binance holding portfolios have outperformed the crypto trading bot portfolio. The difference in ROI (return on investment) of the Binance Top 10 portfolio as compared to the crypto trading bot portfolio is shown in the following chart.
A positive score on the chart means the “Revenyou portfolio” has a higher ROI than the “Binance portfolio”. For example if the “Revenyou portfolio” has a return of 20% and the “Binance Top 10 portfolio” has a return of 50% the result on the chart will be 20 – 50 = -30%
The same chart showing the difference in ROI of the “Binance Top 20 portfolio” (Binance Top 10 + Binance Top 11-20) as compared to the “crypto trading bot portfolio”.
The performance of the Binance Top coins holding portfolios in the last 30 days has been stellar, resulting in an outperformance of the Top 10 coins of 149,63% and an outperformance of the Top 20 coins of 81,67% compared to the Revenyou crypto trading bots portfolio.
The above data suggests that holding a selection of larger volume coins is wiser than buying crypto trading bots. But as noted last month, the risk due to the volatility of holding on to the individual coins is much higher than owning crypto trading bots.
Crypto trading bots work like asset managers, buying and selling crypto coins for you depending on market conditions and signals. Managing your assets reduces risk meaning both gains and losses will be smoothed out. Volatility (risk) is not what most investors are looking for. A controlled profit with the least possible risk is preferable. If the cryptocurrency market undergoes a correction, the fall of prices will be better controlled by the trading bots.
How do we take risk or volatility out of the equation and get a fairer comparison?
The answer is Sharpe ratio. Next italic explanation is copied from last months post and can be skipped / fast forwarded if you know all about Sharpe ratio by now.
The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. Risk in this case is equal to volatility. A portfolio with a high degree of volatility is riskier than a portfolio with lower volatility. High volatility brings with it chances of higher profit but also chances of higher loss.To briefly summarize the usefulness of the ratio:
- The Sharpe ratio adjusts a portfolio’s past performance for the excess risk that was taken by the investor.
- A high Sharpe ratio is good when compared to similar portfolios or funds with lower ratios.
A higher Sharpe metric is always better than a lower one because a higher ratio indicates that the portfolio is making better investment decisions and not being swayed by the risk associated with it. Sharpe ratio grading thresholds are commonly interpreted in the following way:
- <1: Not Good
- 1 – 1.99: Ok
- 2 – 2.99: Really Good
- >3: Exceptional
To calculate the Sharpe ratio we need a risk-free rate of return. This is the return on an investment with zero risk, meaning it’s the return investors could expect for taking no risk. The yield for a U.S. Treasury bond, for example, could be used as the risk-free rate. In my calculations I used T-bonds or Treasury bonds. Treasury bonds are fixed-rate U.S. government debt securities with a maturity range between 10 and 30 years. I used the 10 year bonds.
The following chart shows the development of the “10 Year US Treasury Yield” over the past 6 months. The yield has almost doubled in half a year, increasing from 0,675% mid August 2020 to 1,301% mid February 2021
The following chart represents the Sharpe ratios of the three portfolios, Crypto trading bots (blue line), Top10 coins (orange line) and Top20 coins (yellow line).
The Sharpe ratio results (last months results):
- Top10 coins portfolio: 4,54 (3,20)
- Crypto trading bots portfolio: 4,27 (3,52)
- Top20 coins portfolio: 4,21 (3,16)
The ROI (return on investment) of all three portfolios can be classified as more than exceptional, scoring well above 3. After a month with ‘out of the ordinary’ crypto results the portfolio with the highest Sharpe ratio is the Top 10 coins holding portfolio.
Final conclusion after six months of comparing:
Based on the proposition “A higher Sharpe metric is always better than a lower one because a higher ratio indicates that the portfolio is making better investment decisions” the Top 10 coins holding portfolio wins.
If you like taking risk, you don’t mind the volatility, and you believe in the future of crypto currency, holding the larger volume coins (Top10) would have brought you the highest return in the past six months. Even corrected for risk/volatility this would have been the best choice. The more cautious investor probably sleeps better with a broad selection of crypto trading bots that will manage your assets with less risk. In a declining market or market moving sideways (like the first three months of my comparison) the bots will absorb eventual blows better.
Final note: This comparison doesn’t involve trading by yourself. All three portfolios are buy and hold portfolios for “lazy” investors. The adage has been: Let the coins and the bots work for you, and do not intervene.